This simple stat can save your team from batting with fear.

In cricket, the runs per over (RpO) stat is universally accepted as a measure of batting success. The higher the RpO, the better!

So why don’t we do the same for wickets per over (WpO)?

The benefits of tracking WpO are more subtle than RpO, but by keeping them, you can see at a glance how your team batting performance is doing, and gain confidence that you are “on track” in your innings.

Just like RpO, you can see who is winning the game.

Why WpO?

I had this idea while analysing the team I coach’s losses in the last season. In every case there was a pattern that was tied more to wickets than to runs: The team were keeping up with the RpO target in 50 over limited over cricket, but lost wickets quicker than in the games they won, leading to being bowled out.

In other words, the run scoring wasn’t the issue. We were keeping up with the RpO.

It was the wicket rate that stopped us.

It made me realise that we are often vague about wickets during matches. We often talk about run targets (such as 35 in the first 10, 100 by over 30 and so on), and we almost always meet or exceed them.

However, due to fear of failure and a desire to not lose any wickets, we never set targets for wickets.

This is sensible on the surface. Why would you set a goal for something you ideally want to prevent 100% of the time?

In reality, wickets fall in almost every innings. So we shouldn’t hide from this. The best course of action is to find out the acceptable average number of wickets that fall before the game starts to spiral out of control.

This was a revelation.

WpO is safe uncertainty

We know target setting is safe and effective for runs. We also know that it is still an average, so still uncertain in any given match. We are working with chances of success, not guarantees.

So, let’s extend this effectiveness to wickets.

For example, after some research into the last two seasons at my club (50 over limited over cricket) we found the follow gave us the best chance of success:

• Fewer that two wickets falling in the first 10 overs
• Fewer than five wickets falling in the first 30 overs
• (Most obviously) Fewer than 10 wickets falling in 50 overs

If we convert that to WpO we get an average of 0.19.

(That’s nine and a half wickets falling in 50 overs. The half is important statistically in that it stops the average being a round number. You want the average to be less than 10, but not exactly nine.)

This allows you to compare your WpO to the average to see how you are doing. If you are 90-4 after 22 overs your WpO is 0.18. You are doing better than average so no need to panic!

Get more granular

If you find this reassuring in the same way RpO is reassuring, you can extend the concept.

In our case, we want to see if we are on target at three stages: first 10, 11-30 and 31-50. This translates to:

• 1-10: 0.15
• 11-30: 0.18
• 31-50: 0.19

So, in our example above, a WpO of 0.18 is just about where you can feel good.

However, even if you need to get back on track, you can take tactical measures to survive for a few overs until you are back below 0.18. If you lost a wicket in the 23rd over, you would still be back on track by the end of the 28th. That is not very long to play safe!

You will need to do your own research on your numbers. But you get the idea.

Not an excuse to be sloppy

You may argue that tracking WpO is an excuse to be sloppy. It isn’t.

It’s still not OK to say “we are only three down after 25 overs so we can afford to lose a wicket”. That’s the cricket version of saying it’s OK to crash your car because you are wearing a seat beat. The ideal remains to win without losing a wicket, naturally.

However, it is reassuring to know how you are doing in the game. If you are ahead on RpO and WpO when chasing you know you are “winning” the match. If you are ahead of your average winning WpO when batting first, you know you are setting up a good score. You can play with more freedom and more control and increase your chances of more runs.

We know it works because it works for RpO.

So, give WpO a run and see how it helps your cricket team when you bat.